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China’s central bank has burnt through nearly half atrillion dollars in foreign reserves to support itscurrency since August, despite criticism that it hasbetrayed its commitment to let market forces drivethe exchange rate.

自去年8月以來，中國(guó)央行已燒掉了近5000億美元外匯儲(chǔ)備以支撐人民幣匯率——盡管有批評(píng)意見認(rèn)為該行背棄了讓市場(chǎng)力量在更大程度上決定匯率的承諾。

Sources close to the central bank said theintervention, while costly, had been necessary tomaintain economic confidence and prevent a disorderly depreciation that could have hadripple effects far beyond the currency.

與這家央行關(guān)系密切的人士表示，這一干預(yù)行為盡管代價(jià)巨大，但對(duì)于維護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)信心和阻止人民幣無序貶值是必要的。無序貶值可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生遠(yuǎn)超人民幣本身的漣漪效應(yīng)。

The People’s Bank of China has spent about $473bn of its foreign exchange reserves since itsurprised global markets last August by changing the way it set its daily guidance rate for thecurrency, according to Financial Times estimates based on official data.

去年8月，中國(guó)央行改變了設(shè)定每日人民幣匯率中間價(jià)的方式，震驚全球市場(chǎng)。自那以來，據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》基于官方數(shù)據(jù)的估計(jì)，中國(guó)央行已花掉了大約4730億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備。

Fears that China would permit or actively encourage a sharp devaluation led to a wave ofrenminbi selling after the move.

在中國(guó)央行這一改革之后，對(duì)中國(guó)可能允許或積極鼓勵(lì)人民幣大幅貶值的擔(dān)憂，引發(fā)了一輪人民幣拋售潮。

“The most important factor is confidence, both globally and within China,” said a central bankofficial. “The cost of intervention in terms of reserves has been high, but this policy can’t beevaluated just in terms of numbers. Once confidence is lost it can’t be easily restored. Then alot of bad things can happen.”

一名央行官員表示：“不論對(duì)全球還是中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)來說，信心都是最重要的因素。用外儲(chǔ)干預(yù)的代價(jià)很高，但這一政策的價(jià)值不能只用數(shù)字來衡量。信心一旦喪失就很難恢復(fù)。屆時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生很多糟糕的事情。”

PBoC officials knew that changing the way the central bank set the daily “fix” would unleashpent-up depreciation pressure, but they underestimated the intensity of the marketreaction, according to analysts.

按照分析師的說法，中國(guó)央行官員事先知道改變?nèi)嗣駧胖虚g價(jià)設(shè)定方式可能釋放被抑制的人民幣貶值壓力，不過他們低估了市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)的激烈程度。

A move that might have been expected to produce a 5 per cent downward adjustment quicklythreatened to spark a 10 or 20 per cent rout in a matter of days. Such an uncontrolleddevaluation could have undermined the broader financial system by inciting investors to dumprenminbi assets en masse.

這一原本預(yù)期會(huì)導(dǎo)致匯率下調(diào)5%的舉措，很快就演變成了在幾天內(nèi)引發(fā)10%到20%匯率下挫的威脅。這種不受控制的貶值，可能會(huì)刺激投資者競(jìng)相拋售人民幣資產(chǎn)，從而削弱整體金融體系。

The International Monetary Fund is likely to address exchange rate volatility, among otherfinancial risks, when David Lipton, its deputy managing director, presents the fund’s annualfinancial stability report on China today in Beijing.

今天，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)副總裁戴維•利普頓(David Lipton)將在北京發(fā)布IMF有關(guān)中國(guó)的年度金融穩(wěn)定性報(bào)告。屆時(shí)，除了其他金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，該機(jī)構(gòu)還可能提到匯率波動(dòng)問題。