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ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.

除了銀行擠兌和(金融)市場崩盤，如猛獸一般破籠而出的還有油價大跌。從1973年阿拉伯石油禁運開始，人們就懂得油價飆升將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟浩劫。相反，正如1986年那樣，油價若是因為供過于求而跌價，那么這對全世界來說是極好的。經(jīng)驗法則是這樣的：原油掉價10%，會帶來0.1%到0.5%的經(jīng)濟增長點。

In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.

過去的18個月里，原油油價降了75%，從每桶110美元降到每桶27美元。然而這一次的受益卻不太確定。盡管消費者們受益頗多，但是生產(chǎn)商卻損失慘重。損失波及金融市場，可能已經(jīng)打擊了消費者信心，也許如此極度廉價的原油所帶來的益處依舊大于其帶來的損失，但是金融市場崩潰地如此厲害如此迅速，這一點原因還尚未明朗。